Monday 15 March, 2004
Changes in Spain
I woke up this morning to the news of Spain's general election results. When I heard that people had decided to get rid of the old pro-war government, I felt joy and pride.
As the morning went on and I'd heard more about the subject my opinion changed slightly. Yes, I still think it's good that people protested against what they saw as dishonesty and reckless regard for public opinion. But on the other hand, this was a government that until few days ago was predicted to win comfortably - and the situation was changed because of the Madrid bombing, an act of terrorism. If by this act the terrorists got the people to change their minds, doesn't it mean that the terrorists have won? If the new government will retract their troops from Iraq (like their manifesto promises), doesn't it mean that the terrorists have won?
What kind of signal does it give to other world leaders? I'm sure it'll make some governments very uncomfortable, but it will also make them prepared for something similar happening on their doorsteps. I'm sure we'll hear Tony talking about this very soon, and Jack Straw was already defending him this morning by saying that all the decisions they made where with the best intentions.
I just wish it was that simple.
Posted by kolibri at 15 March 10:34, 2004I have been thinking exactly the same thing. And there is no doubt...
The terrorists have won today. No ifs or buts. They have WON.
# 2 - Kolibri (on March 15, 2004 11:05 AM):
It's very difficult. On the other hand I believe that Iraq should be governed by Iraqis, and that foreign troops should be withdrawn. On the other hand I believe that once the troops have gone in and demolished the previous government, they shouldn't just leave but put something in place instead - something democratically elected. Unfortunately this could/will take years to do as the security situation is not stable enough for peacefull elections.
Yes, the terrorists have won. I just hope (and don't think it's impossible) that something good will come out of this in the end.
# 3 - Hakkis (on March 15, 2004 12:23 PM):
When the people kick out a government which immediately after a horrible terrorist attack tries to use it to drive its own agenda by pinning the blame on one group (even after the contradicting evidence the former prime minister went on ranting about ETA) without any investigations whatsoever, I tend to view the situation as one of assholes losing rather than terrorists winning.
And left-wing governments (such as they are these days) are generally not a victory for Al-Qaeda (if they are indeed to blame for the attacks). They're looking for a Bush-like reaction that will drive new wedges between Islam and the "west".
Had the spaniards gone for a bunch of hard-line fanatics I would have thought the terrorists had won.
# 4 - Kolibri (on March 15, 2004 12:34 PM):
I agree - assholes lost. But it doesn't mean that terrorists didn't win too - they were after all able to change the outcome of democratic elections in a Western country, not a bad result.
But terror has won - if they call back the troops it's because they are afraid of more attacks, they are afraid of retaliation. Not because they belive it's the right thing to do - as it isn't, not at this point. They've started this thing, and they need to finish it.
As you point out, the new government will probably end up being for the better, but I wouldn't open the bottle just yet. It will all depend how they are able to handle this very delicate situation, and I sincerely hope that they are ready for it.
# 5 - mie (on March 15, 2004 01:43 PM):
(Kirjoitan suomeksi kun en jaksa miettiä englanniksi ;-)
Kuulostaa vähän kummalliselta, että terrori-iskun jälkeiset vaalitulokset osoittaisivat terroristien voittaneen. Jos vaalit olisivat olleet kahden kuukauden päästä ja tulos olisi ollut sama, kysyisitkö samaa? Puolen vuoden? Kolme vuotta? Toisaalta, jos hallitseva puolue olisi voittanut, olisimme pohtimassa kuinka ihmiset hädän hetkellä tukeutuvat tuttuun ja turvalliseen ja ihmettelisimme kuinka ihmiset voivat olla niin pelkureita, että antavat terrorismin vaikuttaa päätöksentekoonsa. Samoin teemme kaikissa niissä vaaleissa, missä hallitseva puolue uusii voittonsa (esim. Venäjä). Hetkinen, niinhän teemme nytkin. Toisin sanoen, jos niin halutaan, terroristit voittivat joka tapauksessa. Tai hävisivät. Riippuu siitä, mikä heidän tavoitteensa on. Ja kuka sen taas tietää? Älkääkä vastatko sillä typerällä "he haluavat tuhota elämäntapamme" -mantralla.
# 6 - Kolibri (on March 15, 2004 02:13 PM):
(Suomi kay ihan hyvin :)
Tietenkaan ei ole olemassa yksioikoista yhta syyta miksi vaalitulos muuttui - mutta on ihan selvaa etta jos kolme paivaa ennen vaaleja vallassa oleva puolue on voittamassa selvasti ja terroritekojen jalkeen haviaakin, tama ei ole sattumaa. Bush varmaan voittaa seuraavat vaalit 9/11:n takia - aikaskaala voi siis olla hyvinkin pitka. Blair voi havita vaalit samasta syysta (vaikka tuskin haviaa jos ei mitaan uusia skandaaleja paase syntymaan).
Suurin syy hallituksen haviamiseen Espanjassa oli varmaankin tuo niitten uppiniskainen syyttaminen ETA:a siinakin vaiheessa kun todistusaineisto osoitti selkeasti toiseen suuntaan - ihmiset eivat pitaneet siita etta pommeja kaytettiin hallituksen oman asian ajamiseen. Mutta ihan yhta hyvin ihmiset olisivat voineet valita tuon puolueen sen takia etteivat halua ottaa riskeja siita etta sama tapahtuu uudestaan. Vaikea sanoa kun en tunne espanjalaisia enka asu siella. Mika tahansa syy olikin, lopputulos kuitenkin on etta ihmiset valitsivat puolueen joka ajaa terroristien asiaa - joukkojen vetamista Irakista. Olen varma etta terroristit katsovat onnistuneet aikeissaan.
# 7 - Hakkis (on March 15, 2004 02:33 PM):
"Tietenkaan ei ole olemassa yksioikoista yhta syyta miksi vaalitulos muuttui - mutta on ihan selvaa etta jos kolme paivaa ennen vaaleja vallassa oleva puolue on voittamassa selvasti ja terroritekojen jalkeen haviaakin, tama ei ole sattumaa."
*Kröhöm* Dewey *kröhöm* - gallupit ovat galluppeja ja vaalit vaaleja.
# 8 - Kolibri (on March 15, 2004 03:42 PM):
No nyt mennaan vaarallisille vesille :) En usko etta edes sina voit nahda vaihtoehtoistodellisuuteen ja kertoa mita olisi tapahtunut jos jotain muuta ei olisi tapahtunut.
Ei niin etta itse vaittaisin olevani joku ekspertti tassa asiassa - pitaisi oikeastaan osata enemman espanjaa kuin yhden oluen tilaamisen tarvittava etta voisi lukea paikallista lehdistoa. Siis luotan omissa analyyseissani experttilausuntoihin joita kuulen tai luen.
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